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IPFS News Link • Economy - Economics USA

Gross Domestic Income GDI Suggests US Is In Recession Right Now

• by Mike Shedlock

GDP and GDI data from the BEA, chart by Mish

Yesterday the BEA released the second estimated of first-quarter 2023 GDP. The GDP rose from +1.1 percent to +1.3 percent. And personal consumption expenditures (PCE) rose from +3.7 percent to +3.8 percent.

The BEA does not release GDI in the advance estimate, but does in the second estimate. 

GDI was -2.3 percent in the first quarter of 2023, and -3.3 percent in the fourth quarter of 2022.

That's recession territory, but GDP isn't.

GDP and GDI Details

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the first quarter of 2023 according to the "second" estimate released by the BEA. In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 2.6 percent.

The updated estimates primarily reflected an upward revision to private inventory investment.

The increase in real GDP reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, federal government spending, state and local government spending, and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by decreases in private inventory investment and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

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