Single Family Housing Transactions Have Crashed, But When Will That Matter?• https://mishtalk.com, By Mish
Housing Construction vs Private Fixed Investment Notes
It's more than a bit unusual to plot thousands of units and billions of dollars on the same axis, but the chart conveys the important ideas.
Single family construction is far more important than total units under construction.
Private Residential Fixed Investment, a component of GDP follows single family with a lag that might be quite long.
Private Residential Housing Units vs Private Residential Fixed Investment
The second chart is the same as the first except that I added a line for multi-family, 5 or more units in a single building.
Total units under construction is still rising but private residential fixed construction is falling. Why is that?
Good thread! Love all the lead lag charts. Folks just not used to how macro cycles take time.— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) March 8, 2023
Can I ask a dumb related question?
Why is real resi fixed investment reported in GDP down so much if units under construction are still close to peak? pic.twitter.com/WihZNu4CO9