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IPFS News Link • Politics: Democratic Campaigns

5 Reasons For Democrats To Still Be Concerned About The Midterms

• https://fivethirtyeight.com By Nate Silver

This week? The case for a GOP rebound is a little better.

For one, Republicans can cite some individual polls that have been favorable for them. There was a poll this weekend from ABC News1 and the Washington Post, which found Republicans 5 points ahead on the generic congressional ballot among likely voters — a result which would all but assure the GOP of winning the House and make the Senate an uphill battle for Democrats. Republican candidates have also pretty clearly gained ground in some individual Senate races, such as Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.

There are counterexamples, though. Another highly rated pollster, Selzer & Co., published a poll this week showing Democrats 4 points ahead on the generic ballot among likely voters. Meanwhile, Democrats can cite a few strong recent Senate polls of their own in states such as Ohio and New Hampshire.

Overall, Democrats' chances of winning the Senate are 68-in-100, according to the Deluxe version of our forecast.