Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.
Sky-high values, soaring interest rates and other costs of homeownership -- maintenance, property taxes and utilities -- dampen prospects for future appreciation, according to Kiesel, chief investment officer for global credit at Pacific Investment Management Co. He's weighing putting his Orange County house on the market and becoming a renter rather than an owner.
"I can look at my long-term 25-year charts and they tell me when to buy and sell and they're flashing orange right now," Kiesel, 52, said during an interview at Pimco's Newport Beach, California, headquarters. "I think we're in the final innings."
Home prices soared almost 20% in the 12 months through February, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, as pandemic moves, low borrowing costs and a dearth of inventory spurred heated competition for housing. But the market is now facing the fastest rise in mortgage rates in decades as the Federal Reserve works to tamp down inflation. The average 30-year rate is now 5.1%, close to a 12-year high, Freddie Mac data show.
Home sales contracts, a leading indicator, fell for the fifth consecutive month in March as rising borrowing costs added to affordability pressures, the National Association of Realtors reported on Wednesday.