The annual report says there are 60,000 FSD beta users. This is out of about 300,000 US FSD beta purchasers. Elon says he would be shocked if they do not get FSD safer than human this year.
Elon said Optimus the Teslabot is the most important product they are working upon. It will be bigger than cars, energy and robotaxi.
If believed then there will 300,000 US FSD users this year. The general release of FSD beta to all FSD purchasers sounds like Q2 or Q3. Nextbigfuture expects this would drive FSD adoptions up and other countries would get their versions of FSD late this year or next year. This would likely get to a highly useful robotaxi level next year. Robotaxi likely needs to be at least twice as safe as human in order to show statistically to regulators that it is clearly statistically safer. Four to ten times safer for two to three standard deviations beyond human.
They are already making Tesla Semis. A safer than human level FSD would mean highway and city semi truck driving FSD. This would be something where the use case of safer than human, twice as safe as human and four times safer than human would have high economic value.