This hopeful backdrop prompted Bank of America last week to write that "with the much more transmissible Delta variant now dominant, are we in for another difficult winter? Probably not." It also led JPMorgan's Marko Kolanovic to declare on Oct 6 the de facto end of the pandemic:
Our core view remains that the COVID situation will continue improving driving a cyclical recovery. This will be the case for at least the next 3-4 months given COVID wave dynamics, but most likely also beyond that. We believe that this was the last significant wave, and an effective end to the pandemic.
Alas, not so fast.
Last Friday, Bloomberg issued the first "new wave" covid alert, targeting the UK, and writing that "after 19 months spent attempting to ward off Covid-19 while safeguarding jobs and businesses, the U.K. is heading into winter with a growing problem: The coronavirus is spreading rapidly, just as the economy starts going in the opposite direction."