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IPFS News Link • Stock Market

Nomura Reveals 'The Flow To Know' As Markets Reverse From Selling To "Big Rally"

• by Tyler Durden

....the outcome was not nearly the "hawkish surprise" that Nomura's Charlie McElligott warned could tip the market sharply lower... or higher (especially since the market believes that the Fed will end its hiking plans well before they are fully executed, giving the Fed just 1% of breathing room).

Commenting on the FOMC announcement this morning, the Nomura quant summarized it as a "low surprises" yet still incrementally more "hawkish" Fed:

November taper in-line

Taper length marginal surprise with goal to end mid-year, but still implies near the "expected" $10B / $5B per month reduction

Where a more "hawkish" dot plot is being viewed somewhat skeptically by the market on account of "a lot of hikes in a short period of time" with 6.5 hikes by end '24, in addition to upcoming voter / non-voter member turnover which muddles dovish / hawkish balances of voters

Continued "both sides of mouth" language from Powell, yet again going out of his way to separate the "end of tapering" from the beginning of rate hikes, while noting the policy rate as still accommodative)