Among the factors making this possible was the return of the record stock market mania, which in the last week manifested itself in another round of huge inflows into stocks ($25.6bn) bonds, ($17.9bn), all funded by an even bigger ($47.3bn) outflow from of cash, the largest in 4 months. Among the "flows to know" according to Hartnett, there were strong inflows to IG bonds ($9.8bn) & EM equities ($5.1bn), plus tech inflows resume ($1.6bn); inflow to global stocks past 5 months ($602bn) exceeds inflow in prior 12 years ($452bn)…note US corporate buybacks ($6.3tn over past 12 years).
Hartnett then notes another historic milestone: so far there have been 833 million global COVID-19 vaccines administered since 1st vaccination in UK on Dec 8th, and at this rate global vaccinations are on pace to exceed 1 billion jabs in 6 days, on April 23rd, "a staggering global human achievement," but one that hardens BofA's view that Q2'21 will see peak in policy & profit optimism.
As a reminder, earlier this week BofA quant and chief equity strategist Savita Subramanian explained her reasons why she expects the S&P500 to drop 10% and close the year at 3,800 making BofA tied for the most pessimistic banks on Wall Street).
Looking ahead, Hartnett says that after the remarkable rebound in everyghing in the past year, "there is only one more V to go": V-shape in stock prices, housing, PMIs, EPS, GDP now being followed by V-shape in inflation, just look at lumber prices...