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IPFS News Link • Central Banks/Banking

Rabo: "Central Banks Are Gonna Need A Bigger Boat"

•, By Michael Every

It seems an appropriate title today given one wonders who said that about the vessel still blocking the Suez Canal: was it trying to do a U-turn? If one ever wanted to imagine what blockading the Suez Canal looked like physically, and what it would deliver to already-strained global supply chains economically, well, enjoy. This obviously risks exacerbating the cost-push inflation pressures we are already seeing in many sectors. It may also briefly refocus analysts' attention on just how vulnerable global trade is to blockages in key logistical bottlenecks, such as the South China Sea. Just imagine if it, or the Straits of Malacca, or the Straits of Hormuz were to be subject to geopolitical disruption. It's a good job nobody is talking about any of these things ever happening, isn't it?

Yet back to 'Jaws'. As a younger generation dives gleefully into the still, dark markets like the young swimmer at the start of the movie, one can hear that fateful daaa dum; daaaa dum.

Consider, for example, the picture presented by Bloomberg this morning --"This Sounds Like a Bubble Bursting"-- underlining that "the most frothy part of tech stocks continues to bleed." For goodness' sakes, don't get any blood in the water!

Apparently US tech firms that haven't made any profits dropped around 7% yesterday, extending a decline from their February peak to 29%. Do you know what the graph of that particular market segment is starting to look like to me? A shark's fin: and if that is indeed the case, we would soon see happy young traders suddenly pulled underwater and tossed around like rag dolls.

Yes: we know the central banks are watching, presenting themselves like the wizened mariner Quint who keeps the seas safe: "Y'all know me. Know how I earn a livin'," he says to the concerned Amity Chamber of Commerce after scratching his nails down the chalkboard to get their attention. Central banks can certainly scratch their nails on chalkboards when needed as far as markets are concerned. Look at some of the swings seen in New Zealand's markets of late.