Article Image
IPFS News Link • Energy

Where Energy Modeling Goes Wrong

• https://www.zerohedge.com by Gail Tverberg

The modeling that comes closest to being correct is that which underlies the 1972 book, The Limits to Growth by Donella Meadows and others. This modeling was based on physical quantities of resources, with no financial system whatsoever. The base model, shown here, indicates that limits would be reached a few years later than we actually seem to be reaching them. The dotted black line in Figure 1 indicates where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on the limits we already seemed to be reaching at that time.

Figure 1. Base scenario from 1972 Limits to Growth, printed using today's graphics by Charles Hall and John Day in "Revisiting Limits to Growth After Peak Oil," with dotted line added corresponding to where I saw the world economy to be in January 2019, based on how the economy was operating at that time.


www.BlackMarketFriday.info