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IPFS News Link • Transportation

What Tesla Has Now and the Next Two Years

•, by Brian Wang

Elon Musk stated that 2020 car deliveries will be 30-40% over 2019. Tesla had 367,500 cars delivered in 2019. This means Tesla would have between 477.7k-514.5k cars delivered in 2020. This means Elon is repeating that 300k to 337k cars will be delivered in the third and fourth quarters of 2020.

This means that auto revenue for the last half of the year will be $17B to $19B. This is $7-8B in Q3 and $10-11B in Q4. There is also another $2-3B in revenue in the last half of the year from non-auto revenue.

The third-quarter delivery numbers will be announced in about nine days.

Elon Musk also stated that the China Shanghai factory will be producing 1 million cars per year. It took 15 months to go from dirt to car production and another 4 months to get to a 150,000 car per year run rate. There are expansions ongoing at the Shanghai factory. This should mean a rate of 250,000 cars per year by the end of this year in Shanghai. 500000 cars per year by the end of 2021 and 1 million cars per year by the end of 2022.

This also means that Berlin and Texas have the room to expand to over 1 million cars per year each as well.

Tesla gets about 60 GWh of batteries from its suppliers in 2020. They will add 10 GWh/year of their own batteries from the pilot plant on Kato road. This is nearly one-third of the battery production on Nevada's current production. Those are enough batteries for another 200,000 cars per year. The plan to produce 100 GWh/year in batteries in 2022 would mean that if they bought 80 GWh of batteries from suppliers then Tesla would triple its batteries by 2022. The plan out to 2030 is then 53% per year growth to reach 3000 GWh/year. The 3000 GWh per year was their conservative forecast. If Tesla reached 10,000 GWh per year in 2030 that would be 78% per year growth.