David Stockman: I think it's hard to say because there are opposite forces at work.
On the one hand, if you look at something like oil and commodities, generally, we're in a territory we've never been in before. The current demand for oil dropped by 30 million barrels a day, where they used to focus on blips of 400,000 a day, plus or minus.
This last effort to prop up the OPEC cartel is failing very fast. That side of the price index of the market basket is likely to head south very strongly.
On the other hand, supply chains are being disrupted with increasing intensity.
We're looking at these meat processing plants that are being shut down. We're looking at farmers who can't get their products to market, and we'll see more of that as we get into the production season this year. That's just in the food area.
If we look at manufactured goods, China seems to be coming back to life a little bit, but the supply chains between here and there have been disrupted. There are big questions about what—in terms of both necessities and discretionary goods—will be available.