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IPFS News Link • Federal Reserve

Why The Fed Is Compelled To Cut Rates - Housing, Housing, Housing!

•, by Charis Hamilton

2018 US births were over 500 thousand fewer than those seen in 2007.  The sharp and ongoing 12% decline in births since 2007 is entirely contrary to the sharp increases in asset prices and economic activity...and the Census and Federal Reserve expectations.  The chart below details annual births (blue columns) and the fertility rate (black line).  During each previous economic upturn and financial bubble, the gains were widespread enough to incent a higher fertility rate and higher quantity of births...until the opposite result has been observed for over a decade in the current cycle.  Whatever policies are in place are not translating to economic and financial well being among the child bearing population...and fertility and births reflect this.

Below, births (blue columns) versus the population segments.  The dark blue line representing the 0-14yr/old population versus the 45+yr/old population (red line) is so telling.  Since 1962, the 0-14yr/old population is essentially unchanged while the 45+yr/old population has more than doubled...rising by +76 million.  Meanwhile, the minor increases in the 15-45yr/old childbearing population (yellow line) continue to be overridden by falling fertility rates.  Thus a childbearing population that is nearly double the size it was in 1957 is having 12% fewer total births...and births continue falling fast.