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IPFS News Link • Coup

Map: These Countries Are Most Likely To Suffer A Military Coup In 2017


By: Tyler Durden / Zero Hedge   As disaffected Hillary supporters around the U.S. continue to live in 'complete terror' that Trump's Presidency may mark the beginning of the end of American democracy, here is a map highlighting where, according to a study from the Washington Post, a coup is likely to actually occur in 2017.

Among other things, the study estimates the probability of a coup based on type of government in place, personal freedoms, economic prosperity and access to the internet and other forms of communication.

"We use a small number of statistical models to create separate forecasts for the risk of a successful coup, like in Thailand in 2014, or failed coup attempt, like in Turkey in 2016. Then we combine them to get a single forecast for the risk of a coup attempt for each country. The complete forecasts are available in a CSV file, and we explain the technical details in a separate post.

"The models look for patterns in past coup attempts using data from 1960 to 2017 that we assembled using the Powell and Thyne coup data, Polity Project, World Development Indicators, Armed Conflict Dataset, global food prices (FAO), oil prices (BP) and the Gleditsch and Ward list of states.

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