Many of us woke to the conspiracy theory-worthy news that someone bet big against the future of Donald Trump 'days' before some kid tried to blow his head off.

My natural reaction was that this was way too obvious a move but not beyond the pale, so I looked for more details.

So, on July 12th, a day before the assassination attempt, Austin Private Wealth reported a short position nominally equivalent to 12 million shares. It is huge: it represents approximately one-seventh of Trump's ownership in the same company, or 16% of all available stock float not held by major insiders.

Is that a big deal? For my nonfinancial readers, here is a little introduction to puts. Austin Private Wealth's position is in put options. Puts are financial instruments whose holder receives a payment if the underlying stock falls below the agreed price (the strike price) by a certain date. In such a case, the put option holder receives the difference. The more the stock falls, the more the put holder gains.