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IPFS News Link • Government Debt & Financing

The National Debt Is Crossing an Ominous Line

• https://reason.com, VERONIQUE DE RUGY

The United States is full steam ahead into uncharted fiscal waters, with rapidly growing federal debt promising a choppy economic future. Candidates Joe Biden and Donald Trump have added trillions to the national debt during their recent presidential administrations, leaving America at a critical juncture that demands urgent, bipartisan action.

If you read this column, you know the numbers are stark: U.S. government debt is projected to reach a staggering 122 percent of gross domestic product by 2034, far surpassing levels seen even during World War II. Not only is that a sharp rise from the current 99 percent, but it's based on rosy assumptions about interest rates, inflation, and economic growth. The date to watch is 2038, when this ratio is poised to surpass the previous record from the pandemic year of 2020. The end of the pandemic, unfortunately, hasn't quelled the pandemonium of spending.

So far, fortunately, the U.S. hasn't paid much price for its leaders' irresponsibility. This has prompted economists to come up with all sorts of dreamy theories about why debt doesn't matter and why deficit hawks like me are mere scaremongers. But the cooing of the deficit doves has quieted a little bit recently as America experienced its largest bout of inflation in 50 years and interest rates—which we were assured would never again rise drastically—kept rising.

Unfortunately, a slightly better understanding of the dangers of fiscal irresponsibility doesn't translate into the political courage to change course and act responsibly. So let me make the case, once again, that fiscal stability should be at the top of everyone's priority list.

History does, in fact, offer sobering lessons on the consequences of unchecked government debt. Noted historian Niall Ferguson remarked in a recent Bloomberg column that his studies have led him to conclude that all great powers that spend more on debt service than on defense soon lose their great power. Whether it's the British Empire or France's Ancien Regime, excessive borrowing and spending lead to economic weakness, loss of global influence, and eventual downfall.


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