The number of Americans applying for jobless benefits for the first time surged last week to 242k (up from 229k and well above the 225k exp). That is the highest since August 2023...

On an NSA basis, claims exploded higher.

The last three weeks have seen the largest surge in claims since January...

Notably this surge is very VERY similar to what we saw last year (but not the prior few years, so not a 'seasonal' pattern per se)...

The surge in NSA claims was driven by California...

Probably just a coincidence, right?

Continuing claims also surged back above 1.8 million Americans to its highest level since January...

Is the government's data finally starting to catch up with reality?

Does The Fed suddenly "need" bad data to allow rate-cuts before the election?