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Getting ugly fast. "Overdue commercial property loans hit 10-year high at US banks."

• https://www.linkedin.com, Dave Wald

Financial Times 

     "The volume of past-due loans in which owners of properties rented to others have missed more than one payment jumped 30 per cent, or $4bn, to $17.7bn in the three months to the end of September, according to industry tracker BankRegData.com. The figure had risen by $10bn in a year."

Bill Moreland, who runs BankRegData, told clients that commercial real estate lending was "getting ugly fast".

"It's not a hiccup — it's not Covid and then recover," said Leo Huang the head of commercial real estate debt at Ellington Management Group, an asset manager. "Property prices are going to come down and loan delinquencies are going to keep going up."

"With more than $70bn in commercial real estate loans outstanding, Wells Fargo is the nation's largest lender in the category, and the most exposed to property losses. Its past-due property loans rose more than 50 per cent to $3.4bn in the third quarter, up from just $400mn a year ago."

"Kevin Fagan the head of commercial real estate economic analysis at Moody's Analytics  said he expected delinquency rates to climb for at least the next 12 months. There was "pain to come, that's for sure", he said, but he added it would it take time for delinquencies to turn into losses."


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