"This castle hath a pleasant seat. The air nimbly and sweetly recommends itself upon our gentle senses.."

Volatility in Treasury markets is setting off Global alarms. Economic numbers and earnings present a mixed picture of what's occurring in terms of rates and inflation projections, but the reality is markets are highly vulnerable to rising uncertainty!

Let me start by apologising for late comment this morning, and lack of commentary y'day. Blame it on alarm clocks – She-who-is-Mrs-Blain woke me at 5.15 am to catch the very early train y'day. After I showered and shaved, I put my watch on and realised it was only 2.20 am – her alarm was mis-set! As a result, I was like a half-shut knife all day! Today? Suffering from a surfeit of cheese.

I should not have eaten so much cheese before carving the Turnip-Lantern last night. Nicky and her chums were polishing up their Nimbus 2000s for the big night – and some cheese and wine appeared. We're having our god-kids for dinner this weekend, (and she hasn't decided how to cook them yet…) Only joking.. but the house is full of sticky, sweet Halloween treats to fatten-them-up keep them happy.

Let me pose a question: have we entered a recession and just not spotted it yet admist the current noise?

Halloween is a good time to try to discern the future. Its when the curtains between worlds are thin – it is a time of drama. That's kind of apt given the current market. Looking at events and prices this morning, all I can suggest is Act 1, Scene 1 of the Scottish Play:

"When shall we three meet again, In thunder, lightning, or in rain?

"When the hurlyburly's done, When the battle's lost and won…..

"Fair is foul and foul is fair, hover through the fog and filthy air.