The Bank of Japan is likely to unwind its unusual policy of sub-zero rates during the first half of 2024, the majority of 315 respondents said. The move would bring an end to a bold experiment it embarked on in 2016 — one that's recently placed Japan at odds with other major central banks that have been tightening aggressively to combat inflation.

What the BOJ does, and when it does it, will reverberate through world markets. The biggest consequence, according to MLIV Pulse respondents: more turbulence for the vast amount of Treasuries. That's because higher yields in Japan would encourage fund repatriation by Japanese investors whose huge holdings include US, European and Australian debt.