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IPFS News Link • Transportation

6 Months for Tesla to Have Fully Ramped 4680 Battery Lines

• https://www.nextbigfuture.com, by Brian Wang

Limiting Factor says. -As per my analysis from the Q2 earnings call in the second image:  It looks they're increasing the 4680 line speed in Texas by about 21% per month, and Jordan's guess of 20 million cells by October was spot on.?If the rest of my assumptions are correct, that equates to about a 5.13 GWh/yr run rate, which is about 20-30% more than a typical battery line…  

This would also mean with 21% improvement per month then 3 months to double and about 6 months to reach 20-25 GWh/line. The lines at Austin are capable of 20-25GWh/line. This would be full ramped production so we can make multiple lines by copying equipment and proceses. 

-5.13GWh is based on an assumption of 4.5 million cells per month at ~95 Wh/cell. 
-95Wh/cell includes the 10% energy density increase Drew mentioned in the last earnings call.  
-A ~5GWh run rate, or 4.5 million cells per month, is more than enough to ramp the Cybertruck…  
-Depending on pack size, that could support a run rate of 25-50k Cybertrucks per year.    
-At this point, it looks like Tesla probably has an excess of cells for the C/T ramp.  Hopefully that means they can start ramping the Semi or start converting Model Y or Model 3 to the 4680.


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