It is not that its forces are likely to be defeated or that the Russians are about to sweep into Kiev. Far from it. They are in a mess too. 

It is that the large-scale recapture of the land lost to Russia in 2022 looks less and less likely as the days shorten. Those who invested heavily in a summer offensive against Russia have so far been disappointed. And what then?

The USA is still (wisely) dead set against involving itself directly in the war, so what will break the stalemate? Does this just have to go on and on filling graveyards and doing severe economic damage to Ukraine and Europe? With what aim?

I am no military expert. I haven't fired a proper gun for about 40 years and was not much of a shot when I did. (I sometimes whiled away late shifts on quiet nights in Parliament by using the rifle range which for all I know is still somewhere under the House of Lords.)