The latest COLA estimate from The Senior Citizens League (SCL) is around 3 percent, which amounts to a roughly $54 increase in the current average monthly benefit check of $1,789.

The estimate could still change, however, with SCL saying it will release its final projection for the 2024 COLA on Sept. 13.

The Social Security Administration (SSA) is expected to announce the actual COLA for 2024 sometime in mid-October.

To arrive at its official calculation, the SSA takes the average of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W) during the third quarter of 2023 (which includes July, August, and September). This figure is then compared to the corresponding data from the previous year.

"The COLA announcement is expected to be October 12, 2023, barring any unforeseen delays from a government shutdown," Mary Johnson, Social Security and Medicare policy analyst at SCL, said in a statement.

A partial government shutdown in 2013 led to delays in the official COLA announcement.