After the largest monetary and fiscal stimulus in recent years, growth remains well below trend and debt is significantly higher. It is interesting to hear Janet Yellen say that "trickle-down economics did not work" when this is the failed trickle down: massive government deficit spending leads to negative real wage growth and weaker GDP.

Current consensus real GDP growth for 4Q23 stands at 0.2%, significantly lower than the median projection of 1% in the FOMC's June Summary of Economic Projections.

The latest figure, for example, shows the evidence of headline strength hiding weakness in the details. New durable-goods orders surged in May, but this headline growth disguised that core capital-goods orders were revised down again.

Even if we consider the optimistic assumptions of the Biden administration, which assume a 2% per annum GDP growth until 2032 and 3.8% unemployment, the United States federal government deficit would not fall below 5% of GDP even in 2032. That is a deficit that rises from $1.1 trillion in 2023 to $2.01 trillion in 2032, an accumulated deficit between 2023 and 2032 of $15.46 trillion. That is a 106% debt to GDP according to the Biden administration calculations even with very bullish estimates of growth that consider no recession or stagnation in the entire forecast period.