"It's the worst freight market since the Great Financial Crisis."

This statement is commonly heard on our channel checks among carrier and broker executives and often repeated on social media. Now we have some evidence to support it.

The National Truckload Index (NTI), available on SONAR, which measures the average national truckload spot rate, is $1.49 a mile, breaking below the 2019 seasonal equivalent.

While extremely low rates are bad enough on their own, the worse news is that operating costs for trucking companies (not including fuel) are up more than 30 cents a mile in that same period. Operating expenses include maintenance, insurance, driver salaries and equipment.
On a cash flow-adjusted basis, current spot rates are equivalent to $1.19 a mile, without including any increases in the cost of capital to finance operations.

Where are the bankruptcies?

With the soft market conditions and low rates, where is the surge in 2023 bankruptcies? 

While we know that thousands of small carriers have revoked their operating authority, we have yet to see a rash of bankruptcies in the truckload industry. 

So far in 2023, FreightWaves has reported on only seven bankruptcies, a little more than one a month. The worst trucking market prior to the current one was in 2019, the "Trucking Bloodbath." At one point, FreightWaves reported on 10 trucking bankruptcies in a single week. 

New England Motor Freight's (NEMF's) bankruptcy opened the year (3,000 employees) and Celadon's shuttering (5,500 employees) ended it. There were hundreds in between.

Is this a function of trucking companies doing so well during the COVID economy that they were able to pad their balance sheets and prepare for a massive downturn?