The March 24-month forecast, which predicts reservoir levels along the Colorado River for the next two years, had Lake Mead on a steady trajectory downward.

The lake was projected by next year to fall into a Tier 2B shortage – one that, for the first time, would require California to begin participating in mandatory cuts.

And it would plummet into a Tier 3 shortage – requiring the deepest cuts to which we've currently agreed – the following year.

But now April's here, and everything's different.

How much better are we talking?

This month's forecast now suggests that Lake Mead could start next water year in a Tier 1 shortage, requiring far less water from Arizona than we are now mandated to give.