Yesterday's Fed minutes had a few key takeaways. Obviously, the majority of the FOMC voted for a 25bps hike – but some wanted to go 50bps; and that was at a time when US data was looking weaker than it is now. Second, the FOMC care that financial conditions have been easing, and they don't want them to; which means higher yields, please, and lower stocks, thanks. We got the latter but not the former yesterday. Third, the FOMC don't see CPI back to 2% until 2025. "Transitory" sure lasts a long time - and perhaps for even more years if you look round you.

The White House is considering releasing the intelligence it has garnered showing China is considering supplying lethal aid to Russia – perhaps within hours(?) To say this escalates geopolitical and geoeconomic risks is an understatement.

Tomorrow sees the China peace plan for Ukraine. On that note, look at this quote from the Global Times: "Since Kiev is deeply influenced by Washington, which is not interested in an immediate cease-fire but prefers a prolonged conflict to keep undermining Moscow and change the status quo by force, it is really hard to see a feasible formula for peace that both sides can accept. Peace may arrive only after more casualties and damage in the battlefields make at least one side change their mind." Is that an implied threat to help Russia or resignation?