OPEC+ announced on Wednesday that it would make production cuts of 2 million barrels per day, which is roughly equivalent to 2% of global supply. The decision is monumental. It shows that a new type of world is emerging in the wake of the war in Ukraine, and one that does not revolve around the West. As White House spokesperson Karin Jean-Pierre said this week: "It's clear that Opec+ is aligning with Russia."

The reality is that the decision to cut production is completely rational from the point-of-view of OPEC+. With interest rates rising quickly and growth slowing, Europe, which makes up around 19% of total oil consumption, is almost certainly facing down a serious recession next year. There is also a risk that the United States and Canada will fall into recession at the same time — these countries make up a further 27% of total consumption.

OPEC+ does not want to see history repeat itself. In the 2008 recession, European oil prices fell from just over $140 a barrel to just under $40 a barrel — a massive decline of over 71%. So, the likely reason that they are cutting production is to try to firm up the market in case there is economic turbulence ahead.

It is not OPEC+'s decision that is odd, then, so much as it is the American response. Jean-Pierre's statement is somewhat understandable given that President Biden was aggressively lobbying the cartel to lower oil prices, presumably so he could have claimed to lower oil prices in the run-up to the midterms this November. Yet it still comes across as impotent, even pathetic.