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IPFS News Link • Housing

NAHB National Housing Market Index Declines for the 9th Consecutive Month

• https://mishtalk.com by Mish

"Home builder confidence declined for the ninth straight month in September, according to the NAHB/@WellsFargo  Housing Market Index (HMI). This month's reading of 46 is the lowest since 2014 (excepting the COVID crash)."

Please consider the National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) HMI Data for September. 

The NAHB/Wells Fargo HMI is a weighted average of three separate component indices: Present Single-Family Sales, Single-Family Sales for the Next Six Months, and Traffic of Prospective Buyers. Each month, a panel of builders rates the first two on a scale of "good," "fair" or "poor" and the last on a scale of "high to very high," "average" or "low to very low". An index is calculated for each series by applying the formula "(good – poor + 100)/2" or, for Traffic, "(high/very high – low/very low + 100)/2".

Each resulting index is first seasonally adjusted, then weighted to produce the HMI. The weights are .5920 for Present Sales, .1358 for Sales for the Next Six Months, and .2722 for Traffic. The weights were chosen to maximize the correlation with starts through the following six months. The HMI can range between 0 and 100.


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