Since the last update in June, the NFIB Small Business sales and sentiment measures have only deteriorated further. Despite a surging stock market in July and August, along with suggestions the economy will avoid recession, the data continues to suggest differently if historical precedents hold.

For example, overall confidence expressed by the members of the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) owners is at levels that have historically correlated with deep recessions and bear markets.

Such should not be a surprise when we remember, as shown previously, that small businesses comprise a significant portion of the overall corporate economy and employment.

"According to the U.S. Small Business Administration, there are 28.8 million small businesses in the United States, and they have 56.8 million employees. Small businesses (defined as businesses with fewer than 500 employees) account for 99.7% of all businesses in the U.S. The chart below shows the breakdown of firms and employment from the 2016 Census Bureau Data."