Home Price Synopsis 

Home prices have peaked this cycle but one would not know that by looking at the raw numbers or the chart.

The Case-Shiller National Index hit a new high in June of 483.5, up from 480.7 in May, and 473.0 in April. 

The Case-Shiller 10-City Index hit a new high in June of 520.4, up from 518.9 in May, and 512.8 in April. 

Q: Why am I confident the top is in?

A: Case-Shiller data lags. It is a three month average of the preceding three months. The June report is effectively from April-May, and this is August. 

Moreover, prices have already declined in Denver, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, and D.C.