GDPNow Data from Atlanta Fed. Chart by Mish.

Latest estimate: 1.3 percent — August 1, 2022

Economic data for the third quarter is only a few days underway. But please note the Atlanta Fed GDPNow Model is already headed the wrong direction. 

The GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth (seasonally adjusted annual rate) in the third quarter of 2022 is 1.3 percent on August 1, down from 2.1 percent on July 29. After this morning's Manufacturing ISM Report On Business from the Institute for Supply Management and the construction spending report from the US Census Bureau, the nowcasts of third-quarter real personal consumption expenditures growth and real gross private domestic investment growth declined from 2.5 percent and -1.4 percent, respectively, to 1.5 percent and -2.1 percent, respectively.

Manufacturing ISM® Stays Positive. But For How Long?

Earlier today I asked, Manufacturing ISM® Stays Positive. But For How Long?

Three Key Points

Inventories are at their highest level since July 1984.

New orders and employment contract for the third month.

The backlog of orders is barely positive