As Bloomberg notes, fixed-income and equity bulls are likely expecting that Fed Chair Powell's hawkish mission will be tempered by signs inflation has peaked as an economic downturn nears - a wager not without significant risk.

"The market has shifted to bad-news-is-good-news again, the whole idea that central banks will pivot because the data is so bad," Goldman Sachs Group Inc. strategist Christian Mueller-Glissmann said in an interview on Bloomberg TV.

"We're going back to a template that we know well."

On the other side, wagering on a friendly Fed is too premature a bet for Ajay Rajadhyaksha, a strategist at Barclays Plc. The way he sees it, policy officials would try to avoid the mistake they made in April. That month, central bankers talked down the size of rate hikes that would be ultimately needed, prompting bond traders to question the Fed's commitment to its inflation target. Treasury yields spiked, spurring losses across assets. The S&P 500 dropped almost 9% for the worst month since the pandemic crash.