In a November 2021 report, NTI looked at the outbreak of the monkeypox virus in the fictional country of Brinia on May 15, 2022, which was the focus of the March exercise. Under their imaginary scenario, "the initial outbreak was caused by a terrorist attack using a pathogen engineered in a laboratory with inadequate biosafety and biosecurity provisions and weak oversight."

In the table below (which can be viewed on page 10 of the report), NTI divided their discussions into three "moves."

In the first move, 1,421 cases of the virus resulting in four deaths are reported in Brinia.

By Jan. 10, 2023, seven months later, the virus has spread to 83 countries. There are 70 million cases worldwide, and 1.3 million people have died. Researchers have learned that the virus was engineered to be vaccine-resistant.