Russia has invaded Ukraine which has massive implications for natural resources. Oil is over $120 a barrel. The stock market is already down over 10% from its recent highs.

It's enough to stress anyone out!

Well, unfortunately we now need to add the following: the U.S. will likely enter a recession late this year or early in the next.

According to the Fed's research, the most accurate predictor of a recession is the 10-year/ 3 month U.S Treasury yield curve, or the difference between the yield on the 10-Year U.S. Treasury and the yield on the 3-month U.S. Treasury.

Whenever this yield curve breaks below 0%, the U.S. has entered a recession. I've identified this level on the chart below.