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Relief From High Prices Unlikely, Analysts Say Ahead Of Consumer Inflation Data Release

• https://www.zerohedge.com, by Tom Ozimek

Having seen producer prices soar yesterday, investors closely eyeing consumer prices for any signs that The Fed's 'transitory' inflation narrative is true and Wells Fargo analysts say it's unlikely sticker-shock-weary consumers will see relief as the persistent supply-side crunch will "keep fanning the flames on inflation in the near term."

Yesterday, the Labor Department released data for October's producer price index (PPI), which tends to front-run consumer inflation data as at least some production costs get passed on to consumers. The headline and core data for producer prices came in at record highs.

And today, the Labor Department will issue figures for October's consumer price index (CPI), a key measure of inflation from the perspective of end consumers of goods and services. Consensus forecasts predict a year-over-rise of 5.3 percent in the CPI inflation gauge for October, with the prior month's rise amounting to 5.4 percent, near a 30-year high.

On a month-over-month basis, CPI is expected to clock in at 0.5 percent, according to consensus forecasts released by FXStreet, though Wells Fargo analysts expect inflation was running hotter.

"Consumer Price Index report for the month of October is unlikely to offer much of a reprieve on the inflation front," Wells Fargo analysts wrote in a note, in which they predict a 0.6 percent month-over-month increase in the CPI index.

"If realized, this would put headline CPI inflation at 5.9 percent year-over-year."

"Goods inflation has been running at rates not seen in decades, while services inflation has mostly been in line with its historical average," the analysts added.

"We expect goods inflation to hand the baton to services over the course of the next year, but all signs indicate that supply chain bottlenecks will keep fanning the flames on inflation in the near term."

Bankrate Chief Financial Analyst Greg McBride told The Epoch Times in an emailed statement that lost month's CPI print showed inflationary pressures were broadening out. Prior months saw shocking price surges in areas like lumber, bacon, and used cars, but now price pressures have been seeping into other categories.


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