New Residential Sales

The New Residential Construction report shows another decline in new home sales.

Sales of new single?family houses in May 2021 were at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 769,000, according to estimates released jointly today by the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development.

This is 5.9 percent below the revised April rate of 817,000, but is 9.2 percent above the May 2020 estimate of 704,000.

In addition to the plunge in May, the Census Bureau revised April heavily lower from 863,000 to 817,000.

Consensus Misses Badly

The Econoday consensus estimates are interesting.

New home sales fell back sharply in April but are expected to rise in May to an annual rate of 868,000 versus April's 863,000.

The already sharp decline in April to 863,000 plunged further to a much sharper 817,000.

Headed Towards Pre-Covid Levels 

The pre-Covid high was 756,000 in January of 2020. The Covid surge high was one year later in January 2021 at 993,000. 

In between was the Covid low of 582,000 in April of 2020.

Seriously Distorted Numbers

These numbers are all seriously distorted by seasonal adjustments.

For example, in January of 2021, the peak rebound, there were 77,000 homes sold vs the widely reported 993,000 reported.