As the market goes through another inflation/deflation/stagflation spasm, this time reflected in some commodity prices tumbling from sky-high peaks, and some going yet higher, and gold up as crypto is down, it's time to underline that all the elements are in place for things to get truly heated ahead.

After the US CPI report, I talked about the price of second-hand cars and how the lack of any new vehicles, because of the global lack of semiconductors, meant people were having to bid up whatever there was available to drive around in. Yet don't think there aren't silicon chips in *everything* nowadays: phones and computers, sure; but even fridges and toasters use them. And so does farming equipment – at a time when there is huge, underlying, upwards pressure on food prices for many other reasons. Indeed, a report from Hoosier Ag Today says:

"The biggest factor impacting the ability of US farmers to produce the food we need has nothing to do with the weather, the markets, trade, regulations, or disease. The worldwide shortage of computer chips will impact all aspects of agriculture for the next two years and beyond…farm equipment manufacturers have halted shipments to dealers because they don't have the chips to put in the equipment…not only have combine, planter, tillage, and tractor sales been impacted, but even ATV supplies are limited. Parts, even non-electric parts, are also in short supply because the manufacturers of those parts use the chips in the manufacturing process. As farmers integrate technology into all aspects of the farming process, these highly sophisticated semi-conductors have become the backbone of almost every farming operation."

So let's just underline again that we built a technological wonder of a global economy based on just-in-time supplies of a few key inputs from only a few locations; and then demand surged due a virus that ran rampant through said global economy; and supply chains got snarled for that, and other reasons; and now a lack of silicon chips even impacts on the price of potato chips (in the US) and chips (in the UK). And this is before global supply-chain issues get any worse due to increasingly-strained geopolitics, physically and/or legally.