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IPFS News Link • Housing

"It's Gone Parabolic": Canadian Housing In One Shocking Chart

• Zero Hedge - Tyler Durden

It probably does not need much commentary, but as BMO Senior Economist Robert Kavcic writes in his morning charts, "if it's not fully apparent to all parties that the Canadian housing market is boiling, this picture might convey the message…"

Kavcic urges readers to note the acceleration: "that is, the 1-month change is faster than 3-month; which is faster than the 6-month; which is faster than the 12-month. In all cases but the 12-month (and that won't be long either), price growth has accelerated through the rates seen in 2017, when policymakers were working on multiple fronts to tame the market."

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Curious for more: here are some facts on the state of Canada's overheating housing market courtesy of BMO:

Canadian Existing Home Sales (Feb.) — The Wild North

Canadian existing home sales rose 6.6% in seasonally-adjusted terms in February, setting yet another record level. From a year ago, sales were up a hefty 39.2%, and the gains are about to look even more gawdy once we see comparisons to March, April and May (recall that the market was locked down last year). We've discussed at great length the factors that are driving record demand, but in case you're new to the scene, here's a quick refresher:

Employment in higher-paying industries recovered swiftly, supporting incomes among potential homebuyers.

Mortgage rates plumbed record lows and, while they're backing up now, they're still below pre-COVID levels, while many buyers are likely still on pre-approvals with rates locked in.

There's has been a dramatic shift in preferences toward more space, further outside major urban centres (commuting requirements are down, and probably assumed to remain down).

Limited travel has created historic demand for second (recreational) properties, and households have equity in existing properties to tap.

Younger households are likely pulling forward moves that would have otherwise happened in the years ahead.

There has to be some FOMO and speculative activity in the market at this point (which is, unfortunately, tough to show with hard data until after the fact).


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