The third Monday in January is Blue Monday. Apparently it's the most miserable day of the year as failed New Year resolutions, and Christmas spending catches us up! Not for me! I'm happy, confident and even excited about what's coming next.
Markets-wise there is plenty to consider:
The effect of the $1.9 gazillion Biden spend-a-thon on rates and inflation, and therefore the bond market (crashing minor chords), even as The Squid elevates its US growth expectations (WSJ Survey: US Economic Growth will exceed 4% in 2021).
The likelihood of global post-Covid recovery is balanced by the World Bank reporting on just how damaging the pandemic has been to emerging economies where the only winners have been crime and corruption. (FT – Kristaline Georgieva: "We are in a resilient place but cannot take stability for granted.)
Also in the news is the spectacular growth posted by China for 2000 (WSJ: China is the only major economy to report Economic Growth) is bound to further infuriate the billions who still wonder where and how Covid started, and how come the Chinese seem to have got away with it.
This week's headlines will be dominated by Wednesday's presidential inauguration and the threat of violence. Biden's challenge is addressing all 75 million American's who voted for Trump and persuading them he's genuine about addressing their very real grievances on jobs, opportunities and their profound sense of being left behind as the elites prosper. The question we wait to be answered: will they show any sign of listening? How will Biden persuade them - without breaking the union?