With the narrative across both media and markets driven by the latest polling data turning to the "guaranteed" victory of Joe Biden over Donald Trump on Nov 3, it's worth remembering that exactly this time 4 years ago, Trump's betting odds to defeat Hillary Clinton were about half where they are now, as the following chart from JPMorgan shows.

But while most have forgotten Trump's dismal polling in 2016, when the NYT declared Hillary's chances of victory at 92% just days before the election, everyone remembers what happened on Nov 8, 2016, even if the NYT and the entire polling industry would like to forget.