In his latest ad hoc investing note "Where Is The Folder", the legendary creator of the MOVE bond volatility index and the iconic Merrill Lynch RateLab, Harley Bassman, opines on the coronavirus pandemic and wonders how the United States could have been so unprepared for its arrival:

We manage the Global financial system, which transacts in the currency we print. We control the oceans to ensure the safety of the Global supply chain. Our legal system is an aspiration, and our military keeps hot spots localized to mitigate nuclear annihilation.

So WTF happened?

The Chinese lied - of course they did ! But that's why we have some version of SkyNet watching. And let's not forget Google, Facebook, and Apple that make The Matrix look benevolent.

Whatever. Since the Government will not think two moves ahead, we shall be forced do it ourselves; thus let's consider the next Black Swan.

With that skeptical background in mind, Bassman looks at the opaque future in a time of corona, and contemplates how three key variables - the velocity of money, demographics (Labor Force growth rate inflects up sometime between 2023 and 2027 as the increase in Millennials (1980 – 1996) overtakes the decline in Boomers (1946 – 1964)) ...