One week after Bank of America's Benjamin Bowler showed the one indicator that convinced him that another crash is coming, today the equity derivatives strategist doubles down on his bearish outlook and writes that with valuations currently near tech-bubble highs, equity prices imply either a record short recession or that the Fed will buy equities. And since the Fed "is not buying stocks yet and likely only would if pressed by new lows", this was and remains a bear rally.

As both we and Bowler have discussed previously, while bear market rallies are incredibly common, quick recoveries from high levels of stress coupled with record fast drops in the VIX are unprecedented.

As such, according to Bowler if history is a guide it would not be unlikely for the S&P to rally near 3000 before rolling over and returning to lows, given 1) the size of this shock, and 2) the fact it is coinciding with a recession. In fact, as the BofA trader notes, "if the recent S&P peak on April 29th holds, it would start to look quite textbook."

Of course, the bull-case is that this time is different due to still light positioning and the unprecedented $12 trillion so in stimulus "which could further divorce asset prices from economic reality." But the question is how far from reality, as things are already looking quite divorced. Consider that as we first showed last month, the S&P's forward PE at 20 has only been higher during the Tech Bubble, and BofA's equity strategists' 2020 EPS estimate pushes the current PE above 25 - near all-time highs.