It's a holiday shorted week with limited data of note except for the March CPI release; this is, however, a uniquely non-tradable event given it prints on April 10 when the market is closed for Good Friday. It's not inconceivable that it would be brought forward, but as it currently stands odds favor an ignorable report – if for no other reason than the drop in energy prices will impact the headline figure to such a degree as to undermine its relevance in influencing medium-term inflation expectations. March data has taken on a dismissible character given the distortions created by the coronavirus.

US rates has lost all correlation with economic data. The number of releases which would have warranted massive repricing, but instead have been largely ignored by investors is lengthy – and surprising insofar as they have primarily been related to the labor market. It follows intuitively that the ISM series, durables, housing data, etc. would be dismissed as irrelevant in assessing the economic damage from the pandemic; employment on the other hand will prove to be the beginning (and eventual end) of the recession which is surely upon us.

At the beginning of 2020 we highlighted the risk that the US would slip into a recession so subtly that investors might be caught unaware until after the fact; couldn't have been wronger (it really should be a word). Not only is it blatantly obvious the recession is nigh; but it's about as subtle as a network outage at Netflix. We physically shudder at the thought. This has altered the timeline of trading the hit to the domestic economy and the path of rates going forward – as well as led to a collective disinterest in the incoming data.