A geophysical and demographic analysis of COVID-19 coronavirus deaths in China and Italy reveals leaders in western nations have been misled that quarantine and social distancing will quell the spread of this disease.  The mortal cases of infectious pneumonia continued on past quarantines.  Death rates will predictably fall as temperatures and the solar UV index rise with the arrival of the Spring equinox (March 19).

Solar ultraviolet radiation produces vitamin D in exposed skin and is the overriding factor in infectious disease control.

Quarantines are counter-productive, as a chart below reveals.  The full extent of a predicted spring "cure" that will predictably bring infectious disease to an abrupt halt will only become apparent in time, with the exception of the quarantined populations who now face indoor "urban lockdown" in the U.S., Italy and elsewhere.