Article Image

IPFS News Link • Economy - Economics USA

"This Is A Ticking Timebomb": Here's The Chart That Convinced Albert Edwards...

• https://www.zerohedge.com, by Tyler Durden

Two weeks ago, when looking at the latest CBO forecast which predicted that the cumulative US deficits would increase by $13.1 trillion over the next decade, we highlighted perhaps the most troubling chart in all of finance right now, namely the CBO's long-term forecast for US debt, which can be described in one word: exponential.

Commenting on this chart rather laconically, we said that "in other words, the MMT that will be launched after the next financial crisis, and which will see the Fed directly monetize US debt issuance from the Treasury until the dollar finally loses its reserve currency status, is now factored in."

Neither the chart, nor the comment was lost on SocGen's resident bear Albert Edwards, who after living through a harrowing earthquake during his vacation in Jamaica, chimed in on the chart above, writing in his latest Global Strategy Weekly that "this is a ticking timebomb and the chart... is screaming out for attention. The sources of this debt explosion are well known and documented with, for example, the unfunded liability of an aging population boosting Medicare expenses and the off-budget social security deficit spiralling upwards over the forecast period."

To underscore his Japanification thesis, Edwards also points to the chart below to the left, and observes that this will be "the first year in which the US cyclically  adjusted primary deficit will have exceeded Japan's since 1992, when Japan was beginning to suffer the serious fiscal impact from the bursting."


thelibertyadvisor.com/declare