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Declining Quantities Of Consumers Vs. Increasing Energy Consumption?!?

• by Chris Hamilton

I show the observed data sets from 1980 through 2018 and projected data sets from 2019 through 2050.

Imminent declines in the wealthier nations consumer populations are sure to mean significantly larger decelerations in Energy Consumption than presently forecast.

The ongoing but decelerating Poorer Nations population growth will not make up the difference.

A large, and likely non-linear, deceleration in global energy consumption appears likely.

Food for thought.  Utilizing data sets, rather than anecdotal evidence, can be helpful when attempting to understand the present and future realities we should anticipate.

Today, I compare the 2019 UN Population Prospects report vs. the EIA (US Energy Information Administration) International Energy Outlook 2017. 

I split the world's 0-65 year-olds into roughly even populations by those nations with $4k (thousand) and above per capita purchasing power (solid blue line below) vs. those nations with per capita purchasing power below $4k (solid red line below).

I compare total energy consumption, split by the same wealthier nations (dashed blue line) versus poorer nations (dashed red line).

The "above $4k" nations have an average purchasing power of over $16k per capita income while those nations "below $4k" average $1.6k.  This is about a 10 fold discrepancy in purchasing and consuming power of the wealthier vs. the poorer citizens of the world for what are essentially globally consistently priced commodities and exports. 

The wealthier nations consume just over 88% of the worlds energy and the poor nations the remaining 12%.

The data from 1980 through 2018 are actual observations while the data from 2019 through 2050 are projections.

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