So, as we always do, we decided to take a look at what Americans supposedly spent the most money on in Q2, to find the source of this unexpected spending splurge. What we first found is that, unlike most quarters when there was a decline in spending in at least one category, in Q2 spending actually increased in every single category across goods and services.

Now, traditionally we would expect healthcare - a legacy of America's aging demographic and the Obamacare tax - to provide the bulk of the upside, but in Q2 we found only a relatively modest contribution, with a spending increase of only $15.3 billion compared to Q1. Another surprise was that at a time when auto dealers continue to report declining auto sales on a Y/Y basis, spending on motor vehicles and parts somehow increased by $19.7 billion in the quarter.

Regular readers will recall that this is not the first time this particular category emerged as a surprise top spending category: both two and three years ago, in Q1 of 2016 and then again in Q1 of 2017, Americans inexplicably again splurged on RVs (both of those times, there was a political prerogative to show GDP growth as strong as possible).

It is also worth noting, that if it wasn't for the inexplicable splurge on "Recreational goods and vehicles", GDP would have missed expectations of a 1.8% increase. To be sure, the farcical surge in RV purchases certainly would explain why the housing recovery has turned from boom to bust.