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News Link • Economy - Economics USA

Deflation Coming: CPI Supposedly Headed Nowhere, But Let's Dive Inside

• https://moneymaven.io, by Mish

This month the BLS Says the CPI Rose 0.1%.

The Fed's preferred way of looking at things (All Items Less Food and Energy) has been heading nowhere on a year-over-year basis for a long time.

The details are interesting.

Econoday Comments

Jerome Powell back in May was right, apparel prices were destined to recover which headlines a June consumer price report that will not be raising expectations any further for a rate cut at the month-end FOMC.

The jump in apparel will be getting the headlines but housing is the important key, rising 0.4 percent for rents (3.9 percent on the year) and up 0.3 percent for owners' equivalent rent (3.4 percent on the year). These are fundamental costs for the consumer and the tangible pressure provides a steady to rising floor for the core. Today's report points to an upward move for the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE core index to be posted at month-end (last at 1.6 percent). For those FOMC policy makers who aren't completely sold on a rate cut, the CPI will offer key talking points.

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