Which is why, the risk is that the Fed does precisely what the market now expects with certainty, that it cuts rates as soon as July.

This is shown in the chart below, when in the aftermath of the Asian crisis of 1998, the Fed cut rates only to cause the dot com bubble... and its subsequent bursting and the plunge in rates from 6%+ to just 1% as the first 21st century bubble popped.

It is this risk that, according to BofA, threatens markets now as well: an overly easy Fed cutting rates, only to create a historic meltup just ahead of the 2020 election, and eventually bursting the biggest asset bubble in history. There's more: the Fed could cut and join the ECB and BOJ among those central banks that are losing credibility, as a result of it "patiently" flipping from hikes to cuts "with no material change in macro."

Today,  in his latest weekly note, One River Asset Management CIO, Eric Peters - in his traditionally whimsical voice - picks up where BofA's assessment left off, and reaches a virtually identical conclusion: "the Fed's going to cut rates when it shouldn't" which will be "the start of the dollar collapse" and "the start of inflation -- that's what gold and emerging markets are trying to tell us."